The BETI has a very good correlation with the SARB’s co-incident indicator and has an R squared of 0.95256 with no lag, coming out up to four months ahead of the co-incident indicator. (An R squared of 1 would be perfect.) The level of significance using the F distribution is higher than 97% confidence level.
The Durbin-Watson is 0.5333 which indicates that the BETI is a very good indicator of the current level of economic activity. Data dating back to the beginning of 2002 has been tested and it is believed that the BETI is a robust indicator of current economic activity.
The BETI was also tested against both overall GDP and GDP excluding agriculture. Excluding agriculture, it has an R squared of 0.97078 with GDP lagged by one quarter.
The significance of this data would be in excess of 95% and the Durbin-Watson is 0.63. (F statistic here is over 543 which, on some tables, indicate about 96% significance.)
With general GDP the BETI has a 0.9703 R squared and an even better F statistic, and a Durbin-Watson of 0.66. Again the BETI is ahead of GDP with one quarter.
The BETI is designed as an early economic scorecard which will give an overall trend in economic activity in the near term.
It indicates that the economy is growing, but probably only around 3% on a year ago basis and gives us an economic scoreboard well before other data can. It is reliable and will in the future be a very important statistic on the economic release calendar.
The BETI is released on a regular basis, about ten days after month end and gives South Africans an insight into GDP growth levels.